New Jersey's
Growing Capacity Crisis
2007 Update
As Predicted ... Enrollment Demand
Exceeds Capacity
Student demand for a full-time, residential
experience at one of New Jersey's eight traditional state colleges and
universities is higher than ever before.
Applications for the fall 2006 full-time freshman
class reached an unprecedented level. There were over 46,000 applications from about
21,000 individuals
for an estimated 10,000 full-time slots. Demand is expected to be
higher than ever for the fall 2007 freshman class; many admissions directors are
reporting significant increases in applications.
Both freshmen and transfer students were more
prone than ever to seek housing on campus, a situation which required hundreds
of students to be put on waiting lists at some institutions and scores of others
to be housed off-campus in hotels. Currently, there are over 18,500 students living on campus at the eight residential schools, up from about 16,000
six years ago.
Graduate enrollment in fall 2006 was about 14,100
students.
Meanwhile, Thomas Edison State College continues
to grow to meet the needs of mature students who want to obtain a baccalaureate
or master's degree on a part-time basis. The institution now serves over
12,700 undergraduates.
ASCU officials emphasize that demand is likely to
continue to grow rapidly in the area of full-time, residential
undergraduate education.
Much Greater Demand Seen
Communications Director Paul Shelly has been
tracking campus, state and national college enrollment trends as part of the NJ
College Bound 2008 project. Shelly believes there is a good possibility
that demand for what the nine state colleges/universities offer will increase
much faster than projections. He has enumerated at least a half dozen factors -- beyond high
school graduation demographics -- that could converge to create a
"perfect" wave of enrollment demand. Among them:
As the campuses become more residential in terms
of number of students on campus and facilities to house them, student life will
be enriched and extracurricular opportunities expanded. All this will lead
to more demand.
The Public Favors Expansion
Since 1999, the Association has been sponsoring
public opinion polls to research the direction and strength of public opinion
about expanding the capacity of colleges in New Jersey in order to serve more
students. The results are consistent. Time and again residents and
likely voters have shown that they favor, and strongly favor, expansion of
opportunity and facilities at New Jersey colleges and universities.
Responses to an array of questions indicate New Jersey residents
"connect" increased capacity with access to affordable colleges and
universities and are willing to support a major public investment, such as a
multi-billion dollar higher education facilities bond issue, even at a time of
state budgetary stress.
All polls were based on scientific, random
sampling of New Jersey adults and conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland
Associates, Washington, DC.
Consequences of Underdeveloped
Capacity
Since 1961, New Jersey has worried about the
exodus of high school graduates to colleges in other states and the inability to
educate more of its college bound students. In the late
1960's, the state took major steps to address the problem but since then,
nothing significant has been done -- despite some dismal statistics. The numbers which follow tell the
story best.
| By
the Numbers |
|
|
1 |
New Jersey's rank among the
states in annual net out-migration of high school graduates
to attend college. (Source: US Department of Education) |
|
10 |
Times more likely science
and engineering graduates are to first work in the state where they
attended both high school and college. (Source: Southern Technology
Council) |
44 |
Years since New Jersey citizens
were first alerted about the very high percentage of high school graduates
leaving the state by the League of Women Voters. |
45 |
New Jersey's low rank among the
state's in four-year public college/university enrollment in the state on
a per capita basis. (Source: ASCU calculations - based on data
from the US Consensus Bureau and US Department of Education) |
|
27,000 |
Annual net loss of
college-bound students caused by high out-migration of NJ high school
graduates (and limited in-migration of other states' high school
graduates). |
|
70,000 |
Additional students New Jersey
would have to enroll at four-year public colleges and universities to
reach the national per capita enrollment mean. |
|
1.5 billion ... and counting |
|
|
Estimate, in 1992
dollars, of the revenue -- from tuition, room and board, and other
miscellaneous student spending -- New Jersey loses each year
because of high out-migration. (Source: Joseph Seneca and Jeffrey
Rubin, Rutgers University, 1992) |
|
What the State Can Do
in Partnership with the Institutions and Others |
| Solutions |
|
| 1 |
Lead the nation in making higher education a
top priority for strategic development. |
| 2 |
Provide incentives to increase public
college/university enrollment capacity. |
| 3 |
Broaden college opportunity by de-mystifying
college funding, and investing in innovative student aid programs and new
incentives for colleges to meet state needs. |
| 4 |
Invest regularly in first-rate facilities and
technology, and stronger partnerships with schools and businesses. |