As Predicted... Enrollment Demand Exceeds Capacity
Student demand for a full-time, residential experience at one of New Jersey's eight traditional state colleges and universities is higher than ever before.
Applications for the fall 2006 full-time freshman class reached an unprecedented level. There were over 46,000 applications from about 21,000 individuals for an estimated 10,000 full-time slots. Demand is expected to be higher than ever for the fall 2007 freshman class; many admissions directors are reporting significant increases in applications.
Both freshmen and transfer students were more prone than ever to seek housing on campus, a situation which required hundreds of students to be put on waiting lists at some institutions and scores of others to be housed off-campus in hotels. Currently, there are over 18,500 students living on campus at the eight residential schools, up from about 16,000 six years ago.
Graduate enrollment in fall 2006 was about 14,100 students.
Meanwhile, Thomas Edison State College continues to grow to meet the needs of mature students who want to obtain a baccalaureate or master's degree on a part-time basis. The institution now serves over 12,700 undergraduates.
ASCU officials emphasize that demand is likely to continue to grow rapidly in the area of full-time, residential undergraduate education.
Much Greater Demand Seen
Communications Director Paul Shelly has been tracking campus, state and national college enrollment trends as part of the NJ College Bound 2008 project. Shelly believes there is a good possibility that demand for what the nine state colleges/universities offer will increase much faster than projections. He has enumerated at least a half dozen factors -- beyond high school graduation demographics -- that could converge to create a "perfect" wave of enrollment demand. Among them:
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an increasing number of voc-ed students going on to college
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educational improvements in the Abbott districts;
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in-migration of families with children in high school;
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emergence of state colleges and universities as a first choice; and
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new programs to encourage county college graduates to continue their education.
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As the campuses become more residential in terms of number of students on campus and facilities to house them, student life will be enriched and extracurricular opportunities expanded. All this will lead to more demand.
The Public Favors Expansion
Since 1999, the Association has been sponsoring public opinion polls to research the direction and strength of public opinion about expanding the capacity of colleges in New Jersey in order to serve more students. The results are consistent. Time and again residents and likely voters have shown that they favor, and strongly favor, expansion of opportunity and facilities at New Jersey colleges and universities. Responses to an array of questions indicate New Jersey residents "connect" increased capacity with access to affordable colleges and universities and are willing to support a major public investment, such as a multi-billion dollar higher education facilities bond issue, even at a time of state budgetary stress.
All polls were based on scientific, random sampling of New Jersey adults and conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, Washington, DC.
Consequences of Underdeveloped Capacity
Since 1961, New Jersey has worried about the exodus of high school graduates to colleges in other states and the inability to educate more of its college bound students. In the late 1960's, the state took major steps to address the problem but since then, nothing significant has been done -- despite some dismal statistics. The numbers which follow tell the story best.
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the Numbers |
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1 |
New Jersey's rank among the
states in annual net out-migration of high
school graduates to attend college. (Source:
US Department of Education) |
10
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Times more likely
science and engineering graduates
are the first work in the state where they
attended both high school and college. (Source:
Southern Technology Council)
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44
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High percentage of high
school graduates leaving the state by the League
of Women Voters.
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45
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New Jersey ranks among the
state's in four-year public college/university
enrollment in the state on a per
capita
basis. (Source:
ASCU calculations - based on data from the US
Consensus Bureau and US Department of Education)
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27,000
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Annual net loss of
college-bound students caused by high
out-migration of NJ high school graduates (and
limited in-migration of other states' high
school graduates).
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70,000
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Additional students New
Jersey would have to enroll at four-year public
colleges and universities to reach the national
per capita
enrollment mean.
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| 1.5
billion ... and counting |
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Estimate, in 1992 dollars, of the revenue --
from tuition, room and board, and other
miscellaneous student spending -- New Jersey
loses each year because of high
out-migration. (Source: Joseph
Seneca and Jeffrey Rubin, Rutgers University,
1992) |
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What the State Can do
in Partnership with the Institutions and Others
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Solutions |
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Lead the nation in making
higher education a top priority for strategic
development
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Provide incentives to
increase public college/university enrollment
capacity.
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Broaden college opportunity
by de-mystifying college funding, and investing
in innovative student aid programs and new
incentives for colleges to meet state needs.
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Invest regularly in
first-rate facilities and technology, and
stronger partnerships with schools and
businesses.
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